[Insight] Merz’s Beijing Gambit: Can the German Chancellor Restead the Ship Amid Shifting Global Tides?

President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz

When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz descended the stairs of his official aircraft, he brought more than just an "industrial praetorian guard" of 30 top CEOs. He carried the profound anxieties of Europe’s largest economy—a nation currently battered by inflation, the friction of energy transition, and the volatile unpredictability of transatlantic relations. This visit, his first official trip to China since taking office in May 2025, is widely viewed as a "pragmatic recalibration" of Germany’s most critical external economic relationship in the post-Merkel and post-Scholz eras.

Merz’s visit to China takes place at a moment when the German economy confronts severe tests. In 2025 Germany slipped into a postwar recession rarely seen in its history, marked by widespread manufacturing layoffs and corporate bankruptcies. The high-tariff policies revived by the Trump administration in the United States have further widened fissures among transatlantic allies. According to publicly available trade statistics, China’s exports to Germany reached approximately 201 billion U.S. dollars in 2025, surpassing those of the United States and restoring China as Germany’s largest trading partner. Concurrently, Germany’s trade deficit with China hit a record 105 billion U.S. dollars, while total bilateral trade volume climbed to 296.6 billion U.S. dollars—far exceeding Germany-U.S. trade. These figures are not isolated data points but illustrate the depth of Germany’s dependence on Chinese supply chains and markets. Prior to departure from Berlin Airport, Merz publicly remarked that engagement with China “carries profound implications for Germany” and called for joint responses to global challenges. The statement itself signals a pragmatic reorientation: as several analysts have observed, German Chancellor’s “dual-track strategy”—retaining cautious firmness on values and geopolitics while pursuing practical cooperation in the economic domain—may represent Europe’s micro-level attempt to secure strategic autonomy in an uncertain age.

During the visit, Merz’s itinerary was both tightly scheduled and richly symbolic. Upon arrival in Beijing on 25 February, he first lunched with Premier Li Qiang and attended a session of the China-Germany Economic Advisory Committee. He then held talks with President Xi Jinping at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, where the two leaders agreed to consolidate bilateral ties, uphold free trade and later shared dinner. Merz specifically highlighted China’s commitment to purchase 120 Airbus aircraft—an order that will inject immediate momentum into Germany’s aviation sector and underscore the complementary strengths of China and Europe in high-end manufacturing. The following day, he toured the Forbidden City, leaving a message expressing best wishes for China-Germany relations, before travelling to Hangzhou. There he inspected the Mercedes-Benz China headquarters, test-drove an assisted-driving system jointly developed with the Chinese firm Momenta, and visited innovative enterprises such as Unitree Robotics. The arrangement clearly aimed to allow this German Chancellor to experience firsthand China’s transition from “world factory” to an innovation highland.

Premier of China Li Qiang met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz

In the realms of technology and industry, this German Chancellor’s observations proved especially noteworthy. In Hangzhou he viewed demonstrations of humanoid robots and engaged in substantive dialogue with representatives from Unitree Robotics and other companies. The accompanying German business delegation numbered approximately thirty executives, spanning artificial intelligence, machinery manufacturing, green environmental protection, biotechnology and chemicals—indicating a shift from traditional “technology export” to “innovation co-creation.” Reports indicate that the two sides signed cooperation documents across green transformation, customs, sports and media domains, and restored the China-Germany inter-governmental consultation mechanism. More than ten enterprise contracts were also concluded, covering automobiles, energy, logistics and finance. The Airbus order itself reflects a longer-term collaboration on sustainable aviation fuel and supply-chain integration.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets China's tech vanguard, including Alibaba and Unitree CEOs

These outcomes are by no means coincidental; they constitute the logical result of cooperation under the new situation. In the past, China-Germany relations were portrayed as a complementary “golden era” model: Germany supplied premium brands and precision manufacturing, while China provided a vast market and efficient supply chains. Today, with China’s technological advances in artificial intelligence, new-energy vehicles and robotics, the relationship has entered a phase of “coexistence of competition and cooperation.” Merz explicitly stated that “decoupling from China would be a mistake and would destroy economic opportunities for both countries.” This assessment stands in contrast to growing calls within the European Union for enhanced “competitiveness”—on one hand, EU summits urging stronger industrial safeguards; on the other, he stressing that any China policy must remain within the EU’s unified framework while acknowledging China’s status as a major power and seeking international cooperation. Data reveal that German enterprises’ investment focus in China over the past year has pivoted toward environmental-protection technology, circular economy and medical science—precisely to mitigate risks arising from U.S. policy uncertainty.

A discursive analysis cannot, however, overlook potential challenges. Although this German Chancellor’s “dual-track strategy” is pragmatic, it faces pressure from both domestic and international quarters. Within Germany, certain political figures continue to label China a “systemic rival.” Internationally, the “elephant in the room” of U.S. tariff barriers and technology blockades remains ever-present. The forthcoming visit by Germany’s economic minister may further test this delicate balancing act. Cooperation in green transformation is inherently win-win: Germany requires China’s green supply chains to lower transition costs, while China benefits from German technical standards to advance globally. Yet in artificial intelligence and robotics, direct competition has become unavoidable. Will Merz’s journey genuinely refresh Europe’s perception of China? Outlets such as France’s Le Monde have already described Hangzhou as “the heart of China’s digital revolution,” perhaps signalling a shift in cognition; nevertheless, Western media rhetoric concerning “overcapacity” persists unabated. In the future, whether China-Germany cooperation can avert vicious trade wars and serve as a stable anchor for a multipolar world will continue to demand wisdom from both sides.

Viewed more broadly, German Chancellor Merz’s visit to China acquires heightened strategic significance when situated within the 2026 wave of European leaders’ visits. Successive trips by French President Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and others collectively convey Europe’s determination to pursue strategic autonomy. In a multipolar era, the unpredictability of U.S. unilateralism is prompting Europe to reassess its China policy. Following this visit, Merz is scheduled to travel to Washington in early March to meet President Trump—an arrangement whose timing itself invites reflection: is Europe seeking a third path between China and the United States? China’s advocacy of multilateralism and free trade aligns closely with German Chancellor’s pragmatic statements and may yet emerge as a new paradigm for addressing global challenges.

Among the foreign heads of state who have already visited China in 2026 are: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung (January), Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin (January), Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (January), British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (January), Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (January), Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi (recently) and German Chancellor Merz (February). Heads of state scheduled to visit include U.S. President Trump (April), Russian President Putin (first half of the year) and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (mid-April), among others.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks on the sidelines of the 62nd Munich Security Conference

The Final Question:

As the German Chancellor attempts to carve out a "Third Way" between Washington and Beijing, he faces a world that increasingly abhors middle ground. If the entry of Secretary of State Rubio becomes an insurmountable hurdle, or if President Trump insists on dragging Germany and China into another Middle Eastern conflict, can the "green deals" and "trade pacts" signed in Beijing sustain Germany’s dream of stability in a world defined by chaos?