[Insight] By Selling the "Pickaxes" to Dig Own Grave, Is India’s Solar PV Industry Cutting Off China’s Retreat?（Reprinted）

The "Anti-Involution" Campaign in Progress

Recently, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) hold another photovoltaic (PV) industry symposium, rescheduled from August 1 to August 20, 2025. The industry is eagerly anticipating this meeting. However, a critical question arises: if China unites to reduce domestic PV capacity—much of which is modern, built in the last one or two years—what happens as overseas PV capacity surges? Could our efforts to combat "involution" (overcapacity and cutthroat competition) end up surrendering valuable markets, especially to countries less friendly to China?

At the first PV symposium on July 3, MIIT Minister Li Lecheng emphasized supporting Chinese PV companies’ global expansion but stressed retaining control over key technologies, maintaining a technological lead, and avoiding undermining China’s own industry. Only then can China sustain its PV dominance. Yet, as "anti-involution" and capacity reduction efforts intensify, PV equipment manufacturers are facing declining domestic business. Many are now turning to overseas markets. If these "turnkey" equipment exports proceed without regulation or oversight, what will be the outcome of China’s costly and painful capacity reduction strategy?

India’s Richest Man Expands, While MAXWELL Stays Low-Key

In June 2025, Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, announced that Reliance Industries will invest over 600 billion INR (approximately $8.1 billion USD) over the next three years to build mega-factories for solar, energy storage, electrolyzers, and fuel cells, creating a fully integrated renewable energy ecosystem. An additional 150 billion INR ($2 billion USD) will support value chains, partnerships, and future technologies.

Reliance’s ambitious plan relies heavily on Chinese renewable energy equipment. Cooperation with Chinese PV equipment firms dates back years. In April 2022, MAXWELL’s Singapore subsidiary signed a deal with Reliance to supply eight heterojunction (HJT) battery production lines (600 MW each, totaling 4.8 GW), valued at over 50% of MAXWELL’s 2021 revenue (about 1.5 billion CNY). This deal is central to Reliance’s PV manufacturing strategy, leveraging HJT technology for higher efficiency.

This major order has sparked investor interest. In MAXWELL’s April 29, 2025, investor meeting minutes, four questions focused on the Reliance deal:

• Investor: “Why hasn’t the April 2022 Reliance contract been reflected in 2024 revenue?”

• MAXWELL: “Please refer to publicly disclosed information.”

• Investor: “Reliance’s 2024 report mentions a 1 GW HJT module in production. Is it using your equipment? The 2022 contract was for 0.6 GW per line—did it change? Why no revenue yet?”

• MAXWELL: “Please refer to publicly disclosed information.”

  
  

Despite pressure, MAXWELL remained evasive, suggesting sensitivity around the issue. Is this a secret?

Meanwhile, MAXWELL is raising funds from China’s stock market to expand perovskite equipment production. Coincidentally, on April 29, 2025, Solar Quarter reported that Reliance Industries launched its first gigawatt-scale HJT solar module production line, a key step toward its 10 GW annual capacity goal, reinforcing its leadership in India’s clean energy transition.

Reliance’s HJT modules required more than MAXWELL’s cell equipment. In January 2023, Suzhou Shengcheng PV, a subsidiary of Jinghan Light Industry, signed a 2.82 billion CNY contract with Reliance New Solar Energy to supply a 5.2 GW automated solar module production line. This is India’s largest HJT module production project, using Shengcheng’s smart technology for efficient bifacial modules. To meet Indian demand, Shengcheng established a technical service center in India for full-cycle support, from installation to maintenance.

India’s PV Capacity Reaches 100 GW

China’s PV industry continues to struggle with oversupply, industry-wide losses, and fierce competition. Meanwhile, India’s PV sector is rapidly growing. On July 14, 2025, the Indian government reported that non-fossil fuel power capacity, including 116 GW of solar, accounts for nearly 50% of total capacity, achieving its 2030 Paris Agreement target five years early.

India’s domestic PV manufacturing capacity has surged from 2.3 GW in 2014 to over 100 GW today. Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi stated, “We are building a robust, self-reliant solar manufacturing ecosystem, paving the way for a self-sufficient India and our 2030 goal of 500 GW non-fossil energy capacity.”

India’s PV boom, like China’s, is policy-driven. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme offers direct subsidies and over $11.3 billion USD to boost local manufacturing. By June 2025, PLI added 18.5 GW of module, 9.7 GW of battery, and 2.2 GW of ingot-wafer capacity, covering the entire production chain.

India’s ALMM certification (local market protection) mandates that government and subsidized projects use approved products. In 2022, India imposed 40% tariffs on imported modules and 25% on batteries, tightening restrictions in 2024 to block uncertified products. This “incentive-market-protection” framework has fueled rapid capacity growth.

The ALMM list, covering solar modules (List-I) and batteries (List-II), shows approved module capacity at 100 GW. On July 31, 2025, India’s first ALMM List-II approved 13 GW of battery products from six manufacturers, enabling policy support and market bidding.

However, Sinovoltaics’ latest report notes India’s actual capacities: 68.4 GW for modules, 24.5 GW for batteries, and 14 GW for ingots. Battery supply lags far behind module capacity, meaning India’s PV industry still relies heavily on imported batteries and wafers, primarily from China.

Chinese customs data shows that from January to June 2025, China exported 5.925 billion CNY worth of PV batteries to India, a 46.6% increase year-over-year, topping export markets. While product exports are transparent, equipment exports are less so. Are Chinese equipment suppliers maintaining the technological lead Minister Li demanded? Given India’s savvy and questionable reliability, would they accept outdated or surplus equipment?

From Assembly  in India to Manufacturing in India

India’s high import base grew further in 2025 due to tightened policies. On March 11, 2025, India’s MNRE announced that only batteries made from undiffused black wafers (Black Wafer) will qualify as “Made in India” from June 1, 2026. This applies to all government, subsidized, and open-access/net-metering projects, enforcing full-chain control from batteries to modules.

Blue wafers, which undergo key processes like cleaning, texturing, phosphorus diffusion, edge etching, and anti-reflective coating, are semi-finished products with basic photoelectric conversion functions. Indian firms previously imported blue wafers for simple processes like screen printing and sintering to claim subsidies. The new rule mandates local wafer processing to build a robust PV industry, prioritizing battery capacity growth.

Despite high tariffs, India’s heavy reliance on Chinese battery imports highlights its weak local competitiveness. Of the 13 GW in ALMM List-II, TOPCon batteries account for only 3.3 GW (26%), while N-type technologies dominate globally at over 85%. India’s top TOPCon efficiency is 25.27%, second-tier compared to China’s leading firms.

Battery production is the most technically demanding PV chain segment, with barriers in iteration speed, process complexity, and material innovation. Buying advanced equipment is the fastest solution. A securities report notes that over 80% of India’s PV equipment came from China in 2023, with 2024–2026 demand estimated at 13.8 billion CNY, 85% likely met by Chinese firms.

India aims for 100% local wafer-battery-module production by 2030, with a near-term goal of 30 GW battery capacity by 2027, requiring nearly 20 GW of new capacity in two years—likely sourced from China. Chinese equipment firms hold a 90% global market share, initially driven by firms like Longi, Trina, and Jinko building factories in Southeast Asia. But with anti-dumping measures demanding localization, India’s vast, less advanced market seems ideal.

However, as China’s PV chain remains oversupplied, unrestricted exports of advanced equipment to India could deepen China’s “involution.” If India gains advanced battery capacity, it may reduce Chinese imports and compete in global module markets, squeezing China’s overseas profits.

India’s labor quality won’t match equipment advancements soon, affecting yields. Yet, Indian products are often used to pressure Chinese prices abroad, where most PV profits lie. If India’s competitiveness rises, it could worsen China’s challenges.

Other nations restrict high-end capacity exports. For example, South Korea blocked a battery material factory in the U.S. due to its “national core technology” status, citing inadequate anti-leak measures. China’s CATL faced no such restrictions. China’s latest export restriction list includes large wafer and black silicon technologies but not PV battery equipment.

Without clear restrictions, equipment firms bear no blame for pursuing profits. Like silicon material overcapacity, the issue lies in regulatory oversight. Will China consider protecting PV battery equipment exports, given India’s ambitions? This remains to be seen.

Postscript

Recent media often highlights India’s slow PV projects, land disputes, and poor foreign business environment, reinforcing perceptions of backwardness. However, India overtook China in 2025 as the world’s most populous nation (1.46 billion), with an average age of 28.4 (versus China’s 38.4), the lowest among major economies. India is catching up in manufacturing, becoming a net steel exporter, the third-largest pharmaceutical producer, and the third-largest auto market in 2024.

We shouldn’t dismiss a young economy’s potential. China’s PV leadership is clear, but strategic attention to India is essential.

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This article is a repost and does not necessarily reflect the views of REBIO GROUP. As China navigates the complexities of its photovoltaic industry and global competition, strategic foresight is crucial to maintain its leadership. For cutting-edge insights and solutions in the renewable energy sector, explore our Kada Energy division at Kada Energy.