[Insight] China's PV Industry at a Turning Point: Shifting from Price Wars to Value Creation

As a cornerstone of the global energy transition, China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is undergoing a transformative shift. In the second half of 2025, the sector is moving away from a race to maximize production volume toward a competition centered on transforming price wars into value-driven strategies. The traditional approach of capturing markets through aggressive price cuts, once a driver of rapid growth, is no longer sustainable due to volatile upstream costs, intensified regulatory oversight, and accelerated technological advancements. The PV industry is being compelled to break free from “involution,” with the focus of competition pivoting to technology, branding, services, and lifecycle value. September 2025 has unleashed a wave of positive signals and robust “anti-involution” policies, injecting fresh momentum into the industry and marking a pivotal transition from scale-driven expansion to high-quality development.

September’s Surge of Positive Signals and Policy Momentum: Forging a New Industry Ecosystem

September 2025 has been a landmark month for the PV industry, with policy and market developments underscoring China’s commitment to fostering sustainable growth. On September 1, President Xi Jinping announced at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization+” meeting that China will establish cooperation platforms for energy, green industries, and digital economy, while launching “10 million kilowatts of PV” and “10 million kilowatts of wind power” projects over the next five years, opening vast international markets for PV. On September 2, the China–Shanghai Cooperation Organization Energy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Beijing. The National Energy Administration reported that since China assumed the SCO rotating presidency in July 2024, over 160 new power and renewable energy projects and more than 60 oil and gas projects have been signed in SCO countries, with a total value of approximately RMB 380 billion, fueling regional socioeconomic development.

On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the State Administration for Market Regulation released the Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025–2026). The plan sets ambitious goals for 2025–2026: the electronic information manufacturing sector, encompassing PV, lithium batteries, and components, targets an average annual revenue growth of over 5%, maintaining its leading position in revenue and export share among 41 industrial categories by 2026. It emphasizes curbing low-price competition in PV, enforcing the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standards, and integrating investment, financial, and safety policies to drive technological progress. The plan also promotes coordinated industrial transfers, capacity assessments, and PV component quality management, alongside developing a safety recommendation directory for energy storage batteries based on mandatory national standards. Industry associations are encouraged to establish self-regulatory mechanisms, enhance monitoring, early warning, and risk management to optimize industry scale.

Price recovery signals are clear. On September 1, polysilicon futures surged over 6%, with spot prices from leading firms rising, alongside sharp increases in PV glass contract prices. GCL Technology projects polysilicon prices stabilizing at RMB 60,000–80,000 per ton, with inventories declining. Bidding for 23GW of PV modules by state-owned enterprises like China Huadian and China Resources saw average prices rise above RMB 0.71/W, reflecting a tacit agreement to avoid below-cost pricing, with bids returning to rational levels. A CITIC Securities report suggests that normalized competition and supply-side reforms will sustain price recovery and profitability restoration.

International market diversification is a highlight. From January to June 2025, module exports grew in 115 countries/regions, with 51 seeing over 100% growth, making emerging markets a key driver. The Action Plan further supports regular cooperation with relevant countries in PV, semiconductors, lithium batteries, and other fields, reinforcing China’s global leadership.

Industry Challenge: Rising Installations, Falling Profits

Despite policy tailwinds, the PV industry faces an “increasing volume, decreasing revenue” dilemma. National Energy Administration data shows 223.25GW of new PV installations from January to July 2025, up 80.7% year-on-year. However, the manufacturing sector is under strain, with battery and module production growth dropping below 15% in the first half, and polysilicon and wafer output declining. Companies are trapped in a cycle of “expansion–price cuts–losses,” with issues like low-price bidding, false power labeling, and substandard products disrupting market order and stifling innovation and sustainability. Low-price competition has slashed prices and margins, pushing some firms toward survival crises, with project terminations, delistings, bankruptcies, and exits by cross-industry players on the rise.

Policy Powerhouse: Reshaping the Industry Landscape

To combat “involution,” the government has rolled out a series of “anti-involution” policies. On July 31, MIIT issued a special energy-saving inspection list for 41 polysilicon companies, boosting polysilicon prices. On August 19, six ministries (MIIT, Central Social Work Department, National Development and Reform Commission, State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, State Administration for Market Regulation, and National Energy Administration) held a PV industry symposium, emphasizing price monitoring, cracking down on below-cost sales and false marketing, phasing out outdated capacity, and standardizing product quality. The participation of downstream buyers, particularly state-owned power enterprises controlling over 380GW of PV capacity (62% of the national total by 2024), underscores their pricing and decision-making power.

On August 22, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for resisting malicious competition, optimizing bidding rules, and rationalizing production. On August 25, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued Opinions on Advancing Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction, targeting coverage of major industrial emissions by 2027 and a complete carbon pricing mechanism by 2030, creating new opportunities for PV. The May “green power direct connection” policy and June’s Photovoltaic Desertification Control Plan for the Three-North Region (2025–2030) aim to elevate PV from a supplementary to a primary energy source, with 253GW of new capacity by 2030, accounting for 40% of national PV capacity.

Leading Firms’ Insights: Balancing Cost Reduction and Innovation

The mid-2025 reports of three PV giants—JA Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and Ginlong Technologies—reveal a trend of balancing cost reduction with innovation. JA Solar reported revenue of RMB 23.905 billion and a net loss of RMB 2.58 billion, but Q2 losses narrowed by over 40% through scaled production and internal synergies, while advancing perovskite tandem cell R&D, achieving efficiencies of 30.54% (front sweep) and 31.27% (back sweep). LONGi Green Energy recorded revenue of RMB 32.813 billion, reducing losses by RMB 2.661 billion, with 480 BC-related patents and HPBC2.0 modules at 24.8% efficiency, shipping 4GW to over 70 countries. Ginlong Technologies posted revenue of RMB 3.794 billion and a 70.96% profit increase, driven by higher-margin inverters, energy storage products, and demand recovery in Europe and emerging markets.

The Ultimate Battleground: Technology and Cost as Dual Drivers

The practices of these leaders show that cost reduction and innovation are complementary “dual insurance.” In the short term, process optimization, automation, and long-term procurement stabilize cash flow, ensuring survival. In the long term, technologies like N-type, TOPCon, HJT, and perovskite tandem cells enhance efficiency and longevity, setting the industry ceiling. The future hinges on delivering “holistic profit solutions”—bundling modules, energy storage, and maintenance to offer predictable returns, shifting from price wars to value wars.

With September’s positive signals and “anti-involution” policies, the PV industry is poised to emerge from its “winter.” The Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025–2026) provides a clear roadmap for high-quality development. By driving innovation and rational growth, the industry will continue to lead the global green energy revolution, contributing to a sustainable future. The key to victory lies in balancing technological leadership with cost optimization—those who master this balance will lead the way.

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