[Insight] Sprinting Toward 20GW: Pathways and Opportunities in China's "15th Five-Year Plan" Solar PV Capacity Goals

As of the end of September 2025, China's solar power installed capacity has surged to 1.13 billion kilowatts (GW), marking a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. Combined with 580 million kilowatts of wind power, the total wind and solar capacity exceeds 1.7 billion kilowatts, firmly accounting for half of the nation's cumulative power generation capacity. Reflecting on the past decade, China's annual new installations for wind and solar have successively crossed the 100 million, 200 million, and 300 million kilowatt thresholds. Currently, the country's total wind and solar capacity represents nearly half of the global total, with new additions comprising over 60%, establishing China as a benchmark in the global energy transition.

With the curtain rising on the "15th Five-Year Plan," solar PV is advancing toward an ambitious 2 billion kilowatt installed capacity target. This goal is not merely a numerical leap but a comprehensive test of China's energy system. Challenges such as power absorption, energy storage deficiencies, and grid bottlenecks must be overcome, while policy support and technological innovation provide the key pillars for breakthrough.

Absorption Challenges: The "Growing Pains" of Green Power

"Accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of energy is the 'key lever' for comprehensive green transition," a consensus echoed in major energy conferences. At the policy level, it is clearly stated that by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan," the vast majority of new electricity demand must be met by additional clean energy generation, enabling green power to truly "cross mountains and seas, illuminating millions of homes." However, a significant absorption gap persists between this vision and reality.

In July 2025, data from the National New Energy Absorption Monitoring and Early Warning Center sounded the alarm: Utilization rates in western wind and solar-rich regions dropped during January-May, with photovoltaic utilization in provinces like Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia (East), and Gansu falling below the new 90% "red line." These areas are core construction zones for large-scale wind and solar bases in desert, Gobi, and arid regions ("Sand-Gobi-Desert"). The more intractable "two-ended curtailment" phenomenon further exposes systemic bottlenecks in the absorption system. In 2023, Qinghai's large wind and solar bases were forced to halt generation at midday when the Qinghai-Henan UHVDC transmission channel was not at full load; meanwhile, in the receiving province of Henan, most distributed generation faced midday curtailment. On one side, clean energy is "generated but not transmitted"; on the other, demand is "needed but restricted," creating a supply-demand mismatch that hinders solar industry growth.

To alleviate this dilemma, targeted policy measures have been introduced. The "Notice on Orderly Promoting Direct Green Power Connections" breaks from traditional transmission models by supporting renewable projects to bypass public grids and supply power directly to single high-energy consumers or export-oriented enterprises via "point-to-point" delivery, reducing intermediate losses and providing stable absorption channels. Additionally, the National Energy Administration's "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development (Draft for Comments)" proposes establishing a cross-provincial and cross-regional absorption responsibility weighting mechanism for "wind-solar-rich regions to load centers," requiring eastern power-consuming provinces to absorb a certain proportion of western renewable power annually and incorporating it into local energy assessments to promote inter-regional coordination from an institutional perspective.

Energy Storage Breakthrough: Shifting from "Mandatory Allocation" to "Proactive Deployment"

Amid absorption challenges, energy storage is seen as the most effective "key to unlocking solutions." In 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) issued a series of heavyweight policies on energy storage. The "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage" serves as the core document, building a framework across four dimensions: On the power source side, new "Sand-Gobi-Desert" solar bases must allocate no less than 15% storage with a duration of at least 2 hours; on the grid side, over 20 national-level new energy storage demonstration bases will be built during the "15th Five-Year Plan," each with a scale of at least 1GWh; in multi-scenario applications, integration with data centers, 5G base stations, and charging facilities is supported; in the "AI+" domain, a national smart energy storage dispatching platform will be established for unified monitoring and optimized allocation of nationwide storage resources.

Driven by policies, energy storage applications are expanding. On the power source side, a 100MW agrivoltaic solar plant in Hainan, equipped with a 25MW/50MWh storage project (fully meeting the "15% allocation ratio"), not only enables real-time transformer protection to avoid overload risks but also reduces curtailment from 12% to below 3%, increasing annual generation by over 20 million kilowatt-hours. Grid-side progress is equally notable, with several hundred-megawatt independent storage stations built in Shandong and Gansu. Gansu's Jiuquan 1.2GWh storage station uses an "AI + EMS" dispatching system, responding to grid peak-shaving demands within 100 milliseconds and meeting daily electricity needs for 200,000 households per charge-discharge cycle.

Market mechanisms are injecting sustained momentum into energy storage development. The June 2025 "Guidance on Improving Price Formation Mechanisms for New Energy Storage" outlines paths for storage to participate in spot electricity and ancillary services markets, allowing independent stations to profit via "capacity pricing + energy pricing + ancillary service revenues." In Shanxi, for instance, independent storage stations earn 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour per frequency regulation response through ancillary services, combined with capacity subsidies, shortening investment recovery periods by 3-5 years. Under this backdrop, new energy storage is transitioning from "mandatory allocation" to "proactive deployment," with wind-solar-storage system costs expected to drop to 0.25-0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour in some scenarios during the "15th Five-Year Plan," gradually achieving parity with coal-fired power.

Grid Upgrades: Weaving a Dense "Transmission Network" for Green Power

If energy storage acts as the power system's "buffer," the grid serves as the "highway" for green electricity, with its construction level directly determining renewable absorption capacity. Policies consistently prioritize grid upgrades as vital support for renewables. The "15th Five-Year Plan for New Energy System Construction" outlines a three-tier grid target: "UHV backbone + regional grids + distribution networks." By 2027, 15 new UHV transmission channels will be added, boosting cross-provincial and cross-regional transmission capacity beyond 600 million kilowatts; regionally, focus on strengthening connections from "Sand-Gobi-Desert" bases to load centers; for distribution, 100% intelligent upgrades are required in new distributed solar concentration areas.

To date, State Grid has completed and operationalized 41 UHV projects ("22 AC + 19 DC"), exceeding "13th Five-Year Plan" targets, with cross-provincial transmission capacity up 30% from the end of that period. In summer 2025, State Grid's maximum transmission exceeded 225 million kilowatts—equivalent to 10 Three Gorges Dams—with renewable transmission ratios over 50% on channels like Qinghai-Henan and Changji-Guquan, making them mainstays for inter-regional green power delivery.

Local efforts are actively implementing grid tasks. In Shaanxi, to address northern renewable base export bottlenecks, State Grid Shaanxi Power invested over 30 billion yuan in 20 new 750kV projects per the "Shaanxi Province 15th Five-Year Grid Development Plan." The third 750kV Shaanxi North-to-Central channel, upon commissioning, will elevate transmission capacity from 6.1 million to over 10 million kilowatts, enabling over 10 billion additional kilowatt-hours of renewable delivery annually.

Fine-tuned distribution grid upgrades are also policy priorities. The "Distribution Grid Construction and Upgrade Action Plan (2024-2027)" mandates adoption of digital twin grids and "5G + quantum" communications in high-penetration distributed solar regions like Zhejiang and Jiangsu for "source-grid-load-storage" coordinated control. After upgrades by a Zhejiang power company, annual average outage time per household dropped to 6.01 minutes, achieving 99.999% reliability—international top-tier—and providing stable support for local distributed solar absorption.

Local Absorption: Opening New Avenues in Energy Consumption

As long-distance transmission bottlenecks intensify, local absorption emerges as a critical direction for resolving renewable challenges, with policies offering clear guidance. Beyond the "Notice on Orderly Promoting Direct Green Power Connections," the NDRC and NEA's joint "Guidance on Promoting Local Absorption of Renewables" advances "four batches" initiatives: Build batches of renewable + hydrogen production and renewable + data center demonstration projects; cultivate batches of virtual power plants and zero-carbon parks as new absorption entities; refine batches of local absorption pricing policies; and establish batches of absorption monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.

Local explorations are yielding initial results. In Xinjiang, per "renewable + hydrogen" demonstration requirements, a solar plant added a 20,000 Nm³/day green hydrogen facility, converting untransmittable green power into hydrogen for nearby chemical parks, absorbing over 500 million kilowatt-hours annually and reducing CO2 emissions by 400,000 tons. In Qinghai, under the "Qinghai Province Special Plan for Local Renewable Absorption," "wind-solar + data centers" are promoted, requiring new data centers to consume at least 70% local renewables. One data center, operating during midday curtailment periods, cuts electricity costs by 30% and digests over 800 million kilowatt-hours of surplus solar annually.

Virtual power plants, as novel absorption entities, receive key policy support. The "Virtual Power Plant Construction and Operation Management Measures (Trial)" allow participation in ancillary services and capacity markets with price subsidies. In Hebei's Tangshan, the nation's first electric heavy-truck virtual power plant integrates 2,000 trucks' batteries for 200MW adjustable load, discharging during peaks and charging in valleys, absorbing over 300 million kilowatt-hours annually while boosting owner earnings by over 1,000 yuan per vehicle. Shaanxi, through policy guidance, incorporates EVs, chargers, and storage batteries into virtual plants, forming 500MW adjustable load as a vital grid peak-shaving tool.

Dual Drive of Policy and Market: Safeguarding High-Quality Solar Development

The sustained healthy growth of the solar industry relies on robust policy protection and refined market mechanisms. Nationally, beyond aforementioned policies, the NEA's response to the "Proposal on Accelerating High-Quality Development of Solar Renewables" incorporates "2 billion kilowatts solar capacity" as a core indicator in the "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewables," with an "annual advancement plan": 250 million kilowatts added in 2026, 220 million in 2027, and 200 million in 2028, ensuring steady progress.

For rural solar markets, the March 2025 "Notice on Further Organizing and Implementing the 'Thousand Households Bathing in Light Action'" sets targets: By 2027, rural distributed solar capacity exceeds 500 million kilowatts, covering over 50% of administrative villages; with "three priorities" for rural projects: Priority grid access, subsidies, and green power trading. In a Hunan county, promoting household solar in 100 villages added 100,000 kilowatts in six months, increasing household incomes by 3,000 yuan annually on average.

Local policies align, forming a "national + local" synergy. Dongguan's "Action Plan for High-Quality Distributed Solar Development" targets 3 million kilowatts total by end-2025, adding 3 million during the "15th Five-Year Plan," and exceeding 6 million by 2030; with "storage mandates" for projects ≥2MW at ≥8% capacity and 2-hour duration, offering 0.1 yuan/kWh subsidies. Suzhou's "BIPV Promotion Implementation Plan" subsidizes BIPV in new factories and public buildings at 15 yuan/watt, driving 50% annual growth.

Market reforms are another key. The 2025 "Renewable Electricity Pricing Reform Plan" allows solar plants to choose spot markets or benchmark pricing, with 20% price fluctuation; the "Spot Market Pilot Expansion Plan" grows from 10 to 18 provinces, covering major solar areas; the "Green Power Trading Management Measures" permit premiums on benchmark prices, encouraging high-energy and export firms to buy green power. These shift renewables from "subsidy/quota-driven" to "market-driven." In Shandong, first-half 2025 spot trading lifted average prices 15% above benchmarks, boosting profitability.

Outlook: A Pivotal Five Years from Quantitative to Qualitative Leap

During the "15th Five-Year Plan," China's solar journey to 2 billion kilowatts is not just scale expansion but a profound shift from quantity to quality in the energy system. Achieving this requires coordinating sources, grids, loads, and storage to build a secure, efficient, green, low-carbon new power system, powered by ongoing policies and innovations.

On technological breakthroughs, the "15th Five-Year Plan for Solar Industry Technological Innovation" targets three directions: Pushing TOPCon and HJT cell efficiencies beyond 30%; developing long-life, low-cost storage batteries with over 15,000 cycles; and smart grid dispatching systems with >95% renewable forecasting accuracy. Currently, one firm's HJT cells hit 28.5% efficiency, potentially cutting LCOE by 10% in mass production; new storage batteries exceed 12,000 cycles with 20% cost reductions, breaking industry barriers.

In industry integration, policies promote solar fusion with buildings, transport, and chemicals. The "Solar Industry Integration Development Action Plan (2024-2028)" targets: By 2028, BIPV capacity over 100 million kilowatts, light-storage-charging stations exceeding 100,000, and solar hydrogen capacity at 1 million tons/year. A Beijing office building uses BIPV for 30% facade replacement, generating over 500,000 kilowatt-hours annually to meet 30% building needs; a Jiangsu highway service area light-storage-charging station achieves "green self-sufficiency," saving 100,000 kilowatt-hours in external purchases yearly.

Internationally, leveraging "Belt and Road" green energy cooperation, Chinese solar firms are accelerating globalization. The "Guidance on Promoting Solar Products and Technologies Abroad" supports overseas plant construction, exporting modules, inverters, and storage, while sharing UHV and grid expertise. First-half 2025 exports hit 200 billion yuan, up 30%; in Brazil and Saudi projects, Chinese tech/equipment exceed 70%, contributing to global transitions.

The next five years mark a critical era for China's solar industry to hit 2 billion kilowatts, transitioning from "scale leadership" to "quality leadership." With enhanced absorption, storage breakthroughs, and grid improvements, driven by policy and market forces, China will maintain its forefront in global energy transitions, advancing "dual carbon" goals and a clean, low-carbon, secure, efficient energy system.

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