[Editorial] Iran at a Crossroads — The Consequences of Shattering Global Rules and Balances are Far More Terrifying than Eliminating Single Individual

In the long river of international relations history, few single events can instantly drain the trust foundation that maintains the operation of the global system. However, when the beheading action against Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei shocked the world, the reactions of global markets and foreign ministries of various countries are not so much shock at the fall of a heavyweight religious and political figure in the Middle East, but deep fear of the complete disappearance of the “bottom line” in international game. Combined with the astonishing move of the United States suddenly crossing the border to abduct the Venezuelan president not long ago, the continuous extreme intervention means are releasing an extremely dangerous signal. The core issue that analysts and historians generally discuss is no longer the power transition within Iran, but: in an era where a great power can arbitrarily deprive other countries’ sovereignty symbols and implement physical elimination, the far-reaching consequences of breaking established rules and geopolitical balance are actually much more terrifying than beheading a specific person. This unpredictability brought about by the collapse of rules is transmitting at an unprecedented speed to the global precious metals, traditional energy, new energy, and the geopolitical patterns of the Middle East and Asia-Pacific involving Iran.

Following the reported death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, in a reported U.S.-Israel joint military operation, global markets have shown initial signs of risk aversion. Iran’s official media confirmed the event, while the United States and Israel have yet to issue formal comments. Precious metals prices have fluctuated notably, traditional energy prices face upward pressure, and the new energy sector exhibits complex uncertainty. At the same time, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific involving Iran may undergo reconfiguration. Drawing on publicly available data and historical precedents, such incidents typically involve short-term shocks and prolonged uncertainty. This article, based on multiple open sources and analyst assessments, objectively explores the potential implications across these domains with a deliberative perspective, refraining from absolute judgments.

The precious metals market has been among the first to react. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, typically draws capital inflows during periods of geopolitical tension involving Iran. In the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, for example, gold prices surged to above $1,588 per ounce shortly after the news broke, rising about $90 from pre-event levels and setting a seven-year high at the time. Silver prices rose 5 to 7 percent in tandem. In the current 2026 environment, as of March 1, gold futures have approached the $5,270 per ounce range, with silver hovering near $93 per ounce. Should the Iran situation escalate further, gold prices could test even higher levels, though macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy must also be considered.

Figure 1: Historical gold price trajectory showing surges tied to major geopolitical events

The historical pattern indicates that investor concerns over Iran-related tensions may drive further gains in precious metals, though the extent will depend on the duration and scale of any conflict. Similar episodes have often seen partial retracements within weeks, as observed in 2020 when both oil and gold prices eased following Iran’s missile response.

The impact on traditional energy is more immediate. Iran, as OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, outputs approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4.5 percent of global supply. Critically, the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments, with some 20 million barrels of crude and liquefied natural gas passing daily. Reports already indicate that some tankers are rerouting to avoid the strait in light of the Iran developments. Brent crude futures hovered near $73 per barrel prior to the event, with WTI around $67 per barrel. Analysts estimate that any disruption could push prices short-term to $80–$100 per barrel or higher, adding 0.6–0.7 percentage points to global inflation.

Natural gas prices face similar transmission risks. U.S. Henry Hub futures currently stand at about $2.86 per MMBtu. While Iran’s gas exports are limited, broader Middle East supply interruption risks would quickly affect Europe and Asia. The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook shows the energy price index rose 12 percent in January due to geopolitical factors, with U.S. natural gas surging 78.4 percent. These figures support the observation that traditional energy supply chain vulnerabilities are amplified in the Iran context, though ultimate effects hinge on whether Iran opts for full closure—currently lacking confirmed evidence of such action.

Figure 2: The Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint for global oil trade involving Iran

New energy prices present a more nuanced picture. Elevated oil prices could accelerate investment in renewables. According to Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 Energy Themes Report, despite adjustments to China’s solar and wind incentives, global battery storage investment remains at $20 billion, with electric vehicle sales projected at 24 million units, up 15 percent year-on-year. The lithium battery market exceeded $1.5 trillion in 2025, and geopolitical risks involving Iran may further spur supply-chain diversification. Short-term, however, lithium and battery material prices have shown volatility due to supply concerns, with energy-grade LFP exceeding 40,000 yuan per ton in January. Solar modules and wind equipment may see modest price increases from logistics disruptions, yet longer-term energy security demands could lift renewables’ share in the global energy mix by 10–40 percent.

The upstream photovoltaic (PV) supply chain and prices in the Middle East are also facing indirect impacts. Although the Middle East is not a major global producer of polysilicon or silicon wafers, large-scale solar projects in the region are highly dependent on stable energy supply and logistics channels. The Iran situation may lead to increased project financing costs, construction delays, and supply chain disruptions. According to a Dii Desert Energy report, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) renewable energy installed capacity will reach 43.7 GW in 2025, of which solar PV will reach 34.5 GW, a year-on-year increase of 55%, indicating that solar energy remains the dominant technology in the region. REBIO GROUP, a comprehensive industrial group focusing on carbon asset management and renewable energy, has long monitored the dynamics of the Middle East PV market. According to REBIO, their group's Kada Energy was invited in 2025 to develop a comprehensive photovoltaic industry chain layout plan for a leading food group in Iran. In that plan, Iran's geopolitical risks were listed as the primary risk control element. In fact, historical data shows that the region's solar installed capacity has continued to expand in recent years, but geopolitical risks have repeatedly led to international capital hesitancy. Module and upstream material prices may rise slightly due to increased transportation insurance costs; at the same time, rising energy prices may stimulate some countries to accelerate domestic PV deployment, creating a short-term supply-demand mismatch. If the situation in Iran becomes prolonged, the price fluctuation range of the upstream PV supply chain may be between 5% and 15%, depending on the speed of recovery of shipping routes. Against the backdrop of the Iran crisis, renewable energy may actually present structural opportunities, provided the global supply chain remains resilient.

Figure 3: Projected growth in global solar, wind, and storage capacity through 2035, highlighting acceleration potential amid energy security concerns involving Iran

European energy costs and the electrification of commercial vehicles will face a double challenge. Europe is highly dependent on energy imports from the Middle East, and rising oil and gas prices will directly increase power generation and industrial costs. Recent market analysis indicates that with low natural gas reserves, any supply fluctuations could amplify price elasticity. TTF natural gas futures have already faced upward pressure due to the Iran crisis. In the commercial vehicle sector, rising diesel fuel costs will shorten the window of opportunity for the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage of electric heavy trucks. The EU's ETS2 carbon trading mechanism further reduces the competitiveness of traditional powertrains. Under the influence of the Iran crisis, 2026 commercial vehicle market forecasts indicate that the penetration rate of electric vehicles is expected to steadily increase, and fleet operators will accelerate the electrification process. From a theoretical perspective, the Iran crisis may act as a catalyst for accelerating grid modernization and domestic energy production in Europe, benefiting the electrification process in both the short and long term.

REBIO's commercial vehicles

The Iran event carries particularly profound implications for Middle East geopolitics. Having led Iran for decades, Khamenei’s sudden passing may create a power vacuum, with successor uncertainty potentially intensifying internal factional competition. Iran has stated it will deliver a “devastating response,” possibly targeting U.S. bases or regional allies. This could heighten tensions with Saudi Arabia and Israel while affecting proxy groups such as Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Historical data show that U.S.-Iran tensions in 2019–2020 already triggered multiple attacks on regional oil facilities. Analysts deliberate that further constraints on Iran’s nuclear sites or oil exports would test Middle East stability more severely, though all parties currently appear to weigh risks of full-scale war.

Figure 4: Spheres of influence across the Middle East, with Iran prominently featured amid proxy dynamics

In the Asia-Pacific, spillover effects from the Iran developments are equally significant. China, which accounts for over 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, faces direct energy security risks. Asia-Pacific nations rely heavily on Middle East oil imports; any Hormuz disruption would elevate regional energy costs and affect global supply chains. Observers note that such events may prompt accelerated energy diversification in the Asia-Pacific or adjustments in approaches to issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The United States’ successive actions in Venezuela and now Iran may be viewed as a continuation of intervention patterns, potentially influencing Asia-Pacific allies’ perceptions of U.S. commitments while opening new avenues for China-Russia partnership. Reconfiguration of the Asia-Pacific geopolitical landscape remains in early observation stages and requires ongoing diplomatic monitoring.

Figure 5: Asia-Pacific oil import routes from the Middle East, underscoring reliance on passages near Iran

Global food prices are also on a potential transmission path. Rising oil prices directly increase the production and transportation costs of fertilizers (especially nitrogen fertilizers), while the Middle East conflict may affect the global fertilizer supply chain. Historical analysis shows a high correlation between oil prices and the FAO food price index; a 10% increase in energy prices could put upward pressure on food prices by 2%-5% in the medium to long term. While the global agricultural price index is projected to remain generally stable in 2025-2026, geopolitical risks have been identified as a major variable. In the context of the Iran crisis, developing countries, with their high import dependence, may experience a significant impact on major commodities such as wheat and corn through amplified logistics costs. Objectively speaking, current inventory levels can mitigate some of the impact, but continued uncertainty will test the resilience of the global food security system. The historical trend chart of the FAO food price index shows that energy and geopolitical events are often highly correlated with food price fluctuations. Developing countries have a high dependence on imports, and the Iran crisis could amplify the impact on major commodities such as wheat and corn through logistics costs. Objectively speaking, current inventory levels can buffer some of the impact, but continued uncertainty will test the resilience of the global food security system.

Figure 6: Food inflation: Easing pressures and lingering risks amid global volatility

Broadening the view to the global level, the consecutive occurrence of Iran’s leader assassination and Venezuela’s presidential abduction highlights an intensifying world disorder. Global stakeholders have expressed considerable anxiety. My colleagues at REBIO GROUP accurately foresaw this trajectory of increasing global turbulence in their earlier pieces. Those analyses explicitly noted that unilateral actions could shatter existing international equilibrium, triggering unpredictable chain reactions. Breaking long-established international norms—such as refraining from direct military action against a nation’s highest leadership—may prove far more destructive than the event itself. The resulting uncertainty risks fueling arms races, refugee flows, and economic contagion, placing clear downward pressure on global growth.

For instance, the World Bank forecasts an overall decline in commodity prices for 2026, yet geopolitical premiums have already driven the energy index higher. Prolonged conflict could shave 0.3 percentage points off global GDP, comparable to the impact seen during the U.S.-China trade war (based on 2020 scenario updates). Markets may adapt to the new reality within months, yet the elevation of geopolitical “black swan” risks is unmistakable.

On the Venezuela front, U.S. actions have placed portions of that country’s oil industry under external influence, with output shifts directly affecting global supply. The Iran developments may further amplify Latin America–Middle East energy linkages.

In summary, the Iran situation continues to evolve rapidly. Precious metals and traditional energy prices confront upward risks, while new energy may gain long-term advantages. Middle East power realignments coincide with Asia-Pacific energy security concerns. Yet the most anxiety-inducing aspect may not be the fate of any single leader, but how the international community navigates the new reality after norms have been broken. The absence of such balance could reshape global patterns for years to come. All parties are urged to exercise calm and restraint to prevent wider instability.

The current global situation is at an extremely dangerous tipping point. A series of extreme actions targeting leaders of sovereign states have completely destroyed the relatively civilized buffer zones between nations established after World War II. For market traders, corporate executives, and policymakers worldwide, the most anxiety-inducing and suffocating issue is no longer when Iran will retaliate or how high oil prices will rise, but rather that the "rule-based framework" upon which they rely for deduction, prediction, and investment has vanished. In international relations, the existence of enemies is certainly frightening, but even more terrifying is the complete loss of the rules of the game. When decapitation and kidnapping become the new normal for resolving geopolitical disputes, globalization will rapidly degenerate into a survival-of-the-fittest struggle in a dark forest. The sudden change of leadership in Iran is merely a catalyst for this great transformation; the truly profound impact lies in the fact that human society is irrevocably sliding into an unknown world filled with hostility, extreme division, and no sense of security. The destructive power unleashed by breaking rules and balance has proven, and will continue to prove, to be more chilling than any military strike against an individual.

Note: Data reflect latest publicly available information as of March 1, 2026. Market prices are highly volatile; readers are advised to consult professional financial analysis. Cited sources include Reuters, Bloomberg, EIA, World Bank, Trading Economics and others.